| Economic Indicator | What Does It Measure? | Impact if it EXCEEDS the Estimate | Impact if it DOES NOT REACH the Estimate | Explanation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Price Index (CPI) – Monthly | The change in the price of a fixed basket of goods and services used by the average consumer to determine the level of price inflation. | 🔴 Stocks: Fall 🔴 Bonds: Fall Yields: Rise Dollar: Strengthens | Stocks: Rise Bonds: Rise 🔴 Yields: Fall 🔴 Dollar: Weakens | A strong CPI points to higher prices and rising inflation, which may induce the Fed to raise interest rates. |
| Housing Starts – Monthly | The construction of new residential buildings. | 🔴 Stocks: Fall 🔴 Bonds: Fall Yields: Rise Dollar: Strengthens | Stocks: Rise Bonds: Rise 🔴 Yields: Fall 🔴 Dollar: Weakens | The construction of new housing is generally a byproduct of economic strength. Excessive construction could indicate that the Fed might act to slow down growth. |
| Index of Leading Indicators – Monthly | A group of eleven economic indicators created to forecast the broader movement of the economy. | 🔴 Stocks: Fall 🔴 Bonds: Fall Yields: Rise Dollar: Strengthens | Stocks: Rise Bonds: Rise 🔴 Yields: Fall 🔴 Dollar: Weakens | A rising basket of Leading Indicators points towards growth in the economy, which may induce the Fed to raise interest rates to contain inflation. |
| Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization – Monthly | Evaluates the output of the manufacturing, mining, and utility industries. | 🔴 Stocks: Fall 🔴 Bonds: Fall Yields: Rise Dollar: Strengthens | Stocks: Rise Bonds: Rise 🔴 Yields: Fall 🔴 Dollar: Weakens | Booming production in the manufacturing, mining, and utility sectors suggests the economy is strong and that the Fed may act to curb growth by raising rates. |
| Initial Unemployment Claims – Weekly | Examines how many workers have filed initial claims for unemployment benefits. | Stocks: Rise Bonds: Rise 🔴 Yields: Fall 🔴 Dollar: Weakens | 🔴 Stocks: Fall 🔴 Bonds: Fall Yields: Rise Dollar: Strengthens | If unemployment is rising, it indicates the economy may be weaker because there are fewer jobs available due to less growth. In this case, the Fed may act to stimulate growth by lowering interest rates. |
| Nonfarm Payroll Employment – Monthly | A monthly measure that accounts for production in all sectors to determine the overall strength of the economy. | 🔴 Stocks: Fall 🔴 Bonds: Fall Yields: Rise Dollar: Strengthens | Stocks: Rise Bonds: Rise 🔴 Yields: Fall 🔴 Dollar: Weakens | Strong employment growth suggests a growing economy, which leads to greater demand and higher prices, causing inflation. The Fed may lean towards raising interest rates due to a strong number. |
| Producer Price Index (PPI) – Monthly | Measures wholesale inflation monthly. Examines the change in the wholesale prices of goods shipped by manufacturers. | 🔴 Stocks: Fall 🔴 Bonds: Fall Yields: Rise Dollar: Strengthens | Stocks: Rise Bonds: Rise 🔴 Yields: Fall 🔴 Dollar: Weakens | If producer prices are rising, the increase will be passed on to the consumer and can signal the start of inflation. The Fed would act to increase interest rates to keep inflation under control. |
| Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – Quarterly | Measures the aggregate value of goods and services produced. | 🔴 Stocks: Fall 🔴 Bonds: Fall Yields: Rise Dollar: Strengthens | Stocks: Rise Bonds: Rise 🔴 Yields: Fall 🔴 Dollar: Weakens | If U.S. output is growing too fast, it could cause inflationary pressures, which in turn can cause the Fed to raise interest rates. |
| Retail Sales – Monthly | Analyzes consumer spending by measuring sales at retail establishments to consumers. Includes durable and non-durable goods. | 🔴 Stocks: Fall 🔴 Bonds: Fall Yields: Rise Dollar: Strengthens | Stocks: Rise Bonds: Rise 🔴 Yields: Fall 🔴 Dollar: Weakens | If consumers are spending more on retail items, it indicates that demand is high, which could create higher prices. The Fed may move to raise interest rates to contain the inflationary pressures caused by high retail sales. |
| Unemployment Rate – Monthly | Surveys 60,000 families to see how many people in those households are looking for work. | Stocks: Rise Bonds: Rise 🔴 Yields: Fall 🔴 Dollar: Weakens | 🔴 Stocks: Fall 🔴 Bonds: Fall Yields: Rise Dollar: Strengthens | If unemployment is rising, the economy could be slowing down. The Fed can act to lower interest rates to stimulate growth and create new jobs for the unemployed. |
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